Author Archives: Chad Aldeman

What Did Joe Biden’s Coalition Look Like? What Does it Mean for Education?

As I write this, we’re not done counting votes in several key states, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. But if current trends hold, Joe Biden appears likely to become our 46th President.

What’s astounding is his coalition of voters. According to a review of exit polls, Biden performed better than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 among white men, but performed worse among white women, Black women, Black men, Latina women, and Latino men. See the graphic below via CNN:

Back in August, Alex Spurrier and I warned that Joe Biden’s campaign platform overlooked effective education policies that Black and Hispanic voters tended to support. While the two things may or may not be related, it’s striking that Biden did worse among non-white voters, collectively, than any Democrat since JFK in 1960.

As someone who worked in the Obama Administration, it’s hard for me to look at President Trump’s record and understand how he could increase his support among Black and Hispanic voters. But somehow he did.

Readers of this blog will also have to grapple with the fact that education itself has been politicized over the last four years. In 2016, Trump won among voters without a college degree. In response, pollsters changed their methodologies to account for educational attainment. But polls this time seem to be off again, and Biden, like Clinton, maintained a stark advantage among voters with at least a bachelor’s degree, while Trump continued to win among voters with an associate’s degree or less. See the graphic below via Patrick Ruffini’s analysis of AP VoteCast data:

In other words, the Biden coalition looks quite a bit different than the ones assembled by recent Democrats. Per Andy Rotherham’s suggestion on Tuesday, who wins the election matters the most, but how they win is also important for understanding how they might govern after all the votes are counted.

College and Career Readiness, or a New Form of Tracking?

In a new paper, Lynne Graziano and I look at what data states are collecting around college and career pathways.

On one hand, there’s a positive story to be told. States have changed their formal high school rating systems beyond graduation rates and test scores to include a host of college- and career- readiness measures. By our count, 34 states plus DC have some form of indicator along these lines. Another 12 states are tracking one of these measures but do not yet hold schools accountable for them.

While we find this trend promising, many of these states are lumping all “college and career” measures together, even though those pathways may not be equally rigorous or helpful for students. Worse, only 16 states are disaggregating these measures by subgroups of students, so we have no way of knowing whether certain groups of students, such as Black or Hispanic students, are being tracked into, or away from, certain pathways. We argue states need to do more to ensure the latest push toward college and career pathways yields equitable results for all students.

Read the full paper here.

Media: “Nebraska should shift to this approach for teacher pensions” in The Omaha World-Herald

If COVID-19 causes an economic downturn anything like the last one, that means bad news for Nebraska’s teacher pension plan. In a new piece for The Omaha World-Herald, I argue that Nebraska leaders will face a tough choice. They can raise contribution rates and cut teacher benefits, like they did after the last recession, or they could extend a retirement plan the state already has in place for state employees to also cover its teachers. I suggest the latter:

In short, Nebraska is offering its state employees a better deal than it offers its public school teachers. Compared to teachers, state employees qualify for retirement benefits sooner, receive a higher employer contribution toward those benefits, and are better shielded from market downturns.

Rather than continuing to cut teacher benefits, Nebraska legislators should take this opportunity to extend its existing cash balance plan to teachers, and teachers should take this opportunity to demand better for themselves. 

Read the full piece here.

Media: “Teacher pension plans are getting riskier—and it could backfire on American schools” at the Brown Center Chalkboard

Teachers are relatively risk-averse compared to other professionals, but the pension plans covering 90 percent of teachers are taking substantial risks on their behalf. In fact, in a new piece for Brookings, I argue that risk-taking behavior by teacher pension plans has the potential to harm individual teachers and the teaching profession writ large:

The average teacher may not follow the bond markets very closely, and concepts like the risk premium taken on by their respective pension plan may feel abstract, but that doesn’t mean they don’t affect the average teacher. When pension plans fail to hit their aggressive investment targets, that can create additional costs that trickle down to teachers.

You can read the entire piece at the Brown Center Chalkboard.

Media: “The Iowa Caucuses Steer Our National Priorities. But Iowa’s Education Policies Are Bad for the Nation — and for Iowa” in The 74

I grew up in Iowa. I attended public schools in Iowa.

So it pains me to say this, but the Iowa caucuses are bad for education policy. As I lay out in a new column at The 74, the policies favored by an unrepresentative sample of Iowans have an outside influence on our national politics. That has distorting effects, and not in a good way:

When it comes to certain policy areas, such as farming and agriculture, it’s easy to see how an unrepresentative sample of Iowans would result in policies that were unrepresentative of the rest of the country. Our national farm policies are at least partly shaped by the fact that our presidential candidates must kowtow every four years to local interest groups like the Iowa Farm Bureau, where my father worked when I was a kid.

The same applies to presidential contenders crafting their education policies, meaning an unrepresentative sample of Iowans play a quiet but powerful role in shaping our national educational debate. But are the education policies favored by Iowans any good? Are they worth spreading across the country?

The short answer is no. On education, Iowa is falling behind the rest of the country.

In terms of education policy, Iowa is an outlier, and not in a good way. It’s time to give other states a chance to take the lead. Read my piece here.